A collaboration study between Makerere University School of Public Health-ResilientAfrica Network (RAN) and Johns Hopkins University, this was a pioneering effort to apply systems thinking and complexity-aware approaches to monitoring, evaluation, research, and learning (MERL) in development programming. It was a four-year collaborative research initiative (2015-2019) funded by USAID.
This project developed and tested innovative methodologies for understanding and influencing systemic change, recognizing the limitations of traditional linear evaluation frameworks in addressing complex, adaptive development challenges. The research design used several buckets: first, the adaptation of systems mapping tools (such as causal loop diagrams, network analysis, and system archetypes) for use in development contexts; second, the development of complexity-aware indicators that captured emergent properties, feedback loops, and non-linear change; third, the creation of participatory methods for engaging diverse stakeholders in collective sense-making about system dynamics; and fourth, the exploration of how digital technologies could enhance real-time learning in complex interventions.
The research team conducted action research with several USAID implementing partners in East Africa, applying these methodologies to programs in health systems strengthening, resilience building, and governance reform. A key innovation was the co-creation of developmental evaluation approaches that positioned evaluators as embedded learning partners rather than external auditors, facilitating adaptive management throughout the program cycle. The research documented significant challenges in shifting organizational cultures toward more adaptive, learning-oriented approaches, including resistance to uncertainty, institutional incentives favoring accountability over learning, and capacity gaps in systems thinking. The project produced practical tools and frameworks including a complexity-aware monitoring framework, a guide to systems mapping for development practitioners, and case studies demonstrating application in various sectors.
A particularly valuable contribution was the development of methods for tracking systems change outcomes such as shifts in relationships, changes in power dynamics, emergence of new coordination mechanisms, and evolution of mental models among stakeholders. The research also explored ethical considerations in complexity-aware MERL, including issues of representation in participatory processes, transparency about uncertainty in findings, and balancing adaptation with accountability. This research influenced subsequent USAID guidance on adaptive management.
